Made in China 中国依靠

的廉价制造业高速发展30年,近5年,因为国内制造业发展疲软,大量的资金涌如房地产业,催生了地价,房价飞涨,腐败问题也因为政府的土地财政更加恶化。今年,为了抑制房价继续飞涨,催生出更多的泡沫,中央进行了人为的价格抑制,并勒令央企退出房市,准备上市,接受市场经济的洗礼,伴随着今年国际板在中国露面,从房市到股市的分流非常值得期待,也可以缓解一味的进行短期的价格抑制所带来的对房市和经济不利的影响。毕竟,在中国,钢需的市场巨大,即使建起了廉租房,商品房的需求仍然很高。因为,我们还有一个巨大的消费群体没有挖掘—-农民。

For 30 years, China’s rapid growth has been fueled by cheap labor in manufacturing industry.  In the past 5 years, large amounts of capital have been swarming into the property market with the growth in manufacturing industry dying away. This influx of capital raises land and housing prices, and corruption aggravates the problem as the government is financed by selling the land. This year, in order to contain the property bubbles, the central government intervened. Major state-owned firms are ordered to divest from the property market and go public. It is hoped that market forces will help to adjust the imbalance. It is also expected that capital will be channeled from the property market to the stock market. Side effects of the control may also be minimized in the meantime. After all, the inelastic demand of housing underlies the persistence of high prices, even with supply of low-rent housing. This demand comes from a vast group of consumers untapped before–the rural residents.

近5年,中央在成都和重庆做城乡一体化建设试点。这是建立在农民的土地承包制的基础上,也就是说,在中国以前的土改中确定了农民耕地属于集体土地,不得出让,转让或出租用于非农业建设,国家可随时收回土地令做他用,这就是土地财政的腐败源头之一:在地产商强大的利益诱惑下,政府用低廉的价格强征农民土地。这使农民一夜间失去赖以生存的土地,得到的赔偿却极少,这也是近年农民经常在政府和社会闹事的重要原因。

The urban-rural integration movement initiated in Chengdu and Chongqing in the past five years is based on the contracted use of farmer’s land. In the past land reforms, farming land was legally collectively owned and not to be transferred by individual or the municipal government, or rented for non-agricultural use. The state could re-claim the land for other uses. Such is the source of the corruption of financing the government by selling the land. Promised great profits by the real estate businesses, the government re-claimed the farmers’ land at low prices. The farmers lose the land overnight for meager compensations, which often contributed to the social unrest and anti-government campaigns.

在成都和重庆的摸索下,从城市建设用地到非法的小产权房到集体建设用地,这些极具开创精神和冒险精神的新兴的地产商突破了困扰中国的土地问题。城市建设用地就是合法的在城市范围内买卖地产进行房地产开发;小产权房则是在城市之外直接买卖耕地修房,进行买卖,但由于农村土地是不可以进行转让,出让或出租的,所以小产权放被定义为非法,但这绝对是一次及其大胆的尝试,也为后来的土改提供了绝佳的思路;而集体建设用地则是中央一次大胆的尝试,512大地震的危机经济为土地改革实验提供了极好的条件,集体建设用地在地震重建中被破格准许集体建设用地可以进行流转,装让,出租,由投资者和农民谈判决定,也就是说,现在土地可以确权给农民,让农民自己做决定,而非由政府来征地,而流转土地也让农民这个相对隔离在市经济之外的群体进入市场经济。现在他们成为了土地的主人,同时也成为了极大的消费群体。集体建设用地的出现也直接的打击了土地政策相关的政府腐败。将政府排除在土地流转的利益链之外,使农民直接收益。

Pioneering real estate businessmen in Chengdu and Chongqing have sought ways to untangle the land use puzzle by exploiting concepts of city-construction land use and illegal county-owned property development and collective-owned construction land use. City-construction land use is the legal land development on properties trades within cities.  County-owned property development, or commonly known as small property development, is development on farming land; because of the restriction on farming land, small property development is illegal. However, this is a bold attempt and provides guidance on future land reforms. The development of the collectively-owned land is an experiment engineered by the central government. The Sichuan earthquake provided ideal conditions for land reform, allowing open transactions of collectively owned land in the reconstruction efforts. Therefore the two parties to the transaction of the land are farmers and developers. The farmers, formerly excluded in the market economy reform, finally enter the game. Their gains empower their consumption capacity, and the government is forced out of the transaction, which reduces the corruption stemming from land sales.

那么,针对农村的土地改革市场有多大呢?根据2010年的数据,全国城乡居民人均收入分别增长7.8%和10.9%,农村的人均收入首次超过了城市居民收入,中国有九亿多的农民人口,也就是说土改之前所活跃的消费人群只有不到四亿人口,而这四亿人口中大多数的人又因为社会保障体系不健全而不敢花钱从而削弱了消费能力。如果5年之内,中国按照计划完成了房改,医改,教改,那么就会充分激发出城市人口的消费能力。而土地改革的影响则会更加深远,他会直接开发出农民的消费能力。由廉价制造业衰落之初的迷茫和彷徨,走到今日中国大刀阔斧的经济改革。对中国的经济的展望还是比较乐观。

Then, what is the size of the rural land reform market? 2010 data show that average income of the urban and rural populations grew 7.8% and 10.9% respectively, with rural income gains first surpassing the urban. The 400 million urban inhabitants are the only active consumers whose spending is impaired by worries over incomplete social welfare system; while the 900 million farmers spend very little in general. If within five years, China can complete reforms of housing, medical and educational policies, a full release of the buying power of the urban populations is expected. The impact of the land reform will be even greater, creating a new group of consumers.  China has progressed from the initial confusion and naivety cause by declines in cheap manufacturing, and arrived today as a major power after resolute economic reform. China’s future economic outlook is quite bright.

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GM Unveils Baojun 630, First for New Chinese Brand.

GM has just unveiled it’s first vehicle as part of its new, Chinese-only Baojun brand (Baojun means “Treasured Horse”).  The Baojun 630 is Chevy Cruze-sized car offering a 108hp, 1.5L engine and an estimated 34 miles per gallon.  The estimated price will be between $10,800 and $13,900.

Developed as part of GM’s existing joint venture with SAIC and Wuling, the Baojun 630 will likely be joined by the Chinese domestic version of the Chevy Spark, the Leichi.  The Leichi has been produced in China since 2003, and sells for approximately $6,100.

All international automakers working in China are required to work with a domestic car maker.  The Baojun brand, however, marks a distinct departure in strategy in China.  Chinese consumers prefer domestic brands for white goods, but the automotive market shows a marked preference for foreign vehicles. The release of a Chinese-only brand by GM may help lure in more Chinese car buyers. An estimated 3 out of 4 Chinese car buyers are first time buyer.  However,GM runs the risk of undermining it’s current brand loyalty.

This new Brand accompanies GM’s stated goal of nearly doubling its Chinese sales to 5 million vehicles over the next five years.

Sources: CNN, Reuters, inautonews

Outsourcing to the US?

Despite all the fear over China offering cheap products and manufacturing, a recent meeting between SpaceX and China Great Wall Industrial Corp. revealed that the American company can launch a payload into orbit cheaper.  A shift in US-Chinese space policy in 1999 has all but stopped the trade between the US and China in space products, but an unnamed Chinese official commented that even if the Long March launch vehicle could carry a US satellite, they couldn’t do it cheaper than SpaceX’s quoted prices for the Falcon 9.

Unfortunately, US-Chinese relations have cooled even further with current focus on budget deficits.  The latest US 2011 fiscal compromise package forbids NASA and the White House cooperating with China, even public funds being used to host Chinese visitors to any NASA facility.

Source: Aviation Week

“Made in China” just like 500 years ago

Although some seems to think that the “end on an era of ultra-cheap Chinese exports” is upon us, still pretty much everything you buy nowadays is stamped with the mark “Made in China”, at least somewhere along the lines. You might think that this is a relatively recent phenomenon. But even with the modern economic boom, China had a much greater share of the world’s GDP 500 years ago.

The graph above shows the share of GDP over the last 500 years for China, India, Japan, Latin America, Western Europe, and United States. (Keep in mind that the change in population size will effect the size of the GDP)

The graph below shows the share of GDP over the last 500 years for China, India, Japan, Latin America, Western Europe, and United States. (Keep in mind that the change in population size will effect the size of the GDP)

America!

China!

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